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Could Iran become the next Afghanistan? As US-Iran tensions escalate, we examine the risks of prolonged conflict, regime collapse, and regional instability. Read the latest analysis.
Introduction
The spectre of war between the US and Iran has loomed for decades, but recent escalations have reignited fears of a full-blown conflict. With Washington’s history of regime change operations—most notably in Afghanistan and Iraq—many analysts now question: Could Iran face a similar fate?
In this article, we assess whether a US-Iran war could plunge the country into an Afghanistan-like quagmire, examining military, political, and humanitarian risks.
1. Historical Context: US Interventions & Their Consequences
The Afghanistan Parallel
The US invasion of Afghanistan (2001) aimed to dismantle Al-Qaeda and topple the Taliban. Yet, 20 years later, the Taliban returned to power, proving that military force alone couldn’t stabilise the country.
Lessons from Iraq
Similarly, Iraq descended into chaos after the 2003 invasion, leading to sectarian violence and the rise of ISIS. If the US were to engage Iran directly, could it avoid repeating these mistakes?
2. Could Iran Become Another Afghanistan?
Military Challenges
Geographical & Strategic Differences: Unlike Afghanistan’s rugged terrain, Iran has a conventional military, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks (Hezbollah, Hamas).
Potential for Guerrilla Warfare: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and allied militias could wage a prolonged insurgency, much like the Taliban.
Political Fallout
Regime Resilience: The Iranian government has survived sanctions and protests, suggesting it may not collapse easily.
Risk of Fragmentation: Ethnic divisions (Kurds, Balochis, Azeris) could lead to a Syria-like civil war if central authority weakens.
Humanitarian Crisis
Millions could face displacement, economic collapse, and famine due to sanctions and war.
Refugee waves might destabilise neighbouring countries like Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey.
3. US Strategy: Regime Change or Containment?
Washington’s options include:
✔ Targeted Strikes (e.g., nuclear facilities, IRGC leaders)
✔ Economic Strangulation (maximum pressure sanctions)
✔ Proxy War Escalation (supporting opposition groups)
However, a full invasion seems unlikely—the US has learned from Afghanistan and Iraq that occupation is costly and unsustainable.
4. Regional & Global Implications
Israel & Saudi Arabia’s Role: Both fear Iran’s nuclear ambitions but may oppose a US withdrawal that leaves chaos.
Russia & China’s Stance: They could back Iran economically and militarily, turning the conflict into a proxy Cold War.
Oil Market Shock: A war could send global oil prices soaring, triggering an economic crisis.
5. Conclusion: Is Iran the Next Afghanistan?
While Iran’s geopolitical position differs from Afghanistan’s, a US-led conflict risks similar long-term instability. Instead of regime collapse, the more likely outcomes are:
A protracted insurgency
Regional proxy wars
Humanitarian disasters
For now, diplomacy remains the safest path—but with tensions high, the world watches nervously.
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