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India is being pressured to stop importing Russian oil, buy massive US products, and open its markets to zero-tariff American goods. But at what cost to Indian farmers and India’s agricultural backbone? A deep analysis of how unfair trade can hurt India’s economy.
Is India Being Pushed Into an Unfair Trade Deal? The Hidden Cost to Farmers & the Economy
India today stands at a critical economic crossroads. On one side, there is growing international pressure to reduce imports of Russian oil, which currently make up nearly 40% of India’s crude oil requirements. On the other, there is a push for India to commit to purchasing nearly half a trillion dollars’ worth of American products. While global trade partnerships are essential, the terms under discussion raise serious concerns about fairness, economic sovereignty, and the future of India’s farmers.
At the heart of this issue is a worrying imbalance. India is being asked to accept an 18% tariff on its exports to the United States, while American goods are proposed to enter India with zero tariff. This is not free trade — it is one-sided trade. Such arrangements may benefit American exporters and farmers, but they risk placing Indian producers at a significant disadvantage.
India’s economy is not structured like that of developed Western nations. Nearly 70% of India’s population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. Farming is not just an industry in India — it is a way of life, a social safety net, and the backbone of rural employment. Any policy that weakens domestic agriculture does not just hurt farmers; it threatens rural stability, food security, and long-term economic resilience.
One of the most serious risks is the dumping of heavily subsidised American agricultural products into the Indian market. If cheaper foreign crops flood India, local farmers will be unable to compete on price. Their production costs are already rising due to fuel, fertiliser, and transport expenses. Opening the gates to zero-tariff imports could crush small and marginal farmers, who form the majority of India’s agricultural workforce.
Post-Covid, agriculture was one of the few sectors that kept India standing strong. While many industries slowed down, Indian farmers continued producing food, supporting supply chains, and sustaining rural demand. Agriculture acted as an economic shock absorber. Undermining this sector now would be a strategic mistake with long-term consequences.
From the American perspective, this arrangement is a clear win. American farmers gain access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets. American manufacturers benefit from guaranteed large-scale purchases. But for India, the equation is far more complex. Trade must be mutual, fair, and balanced — not structured in a way that weakens domestic industries and shifts economic power outward.
Energy security is another major concern. Russian oil has helped India manage fuel costs during times of global volatility. Forcing a sudden shift away from discounted energy sources can increase import bills, raise inflation, and put pressure on ordinary Indian households. Higher fuel prices directly impact farmers through higher transport and irrigation costs, creating a ripple effect across the rural economy.
India’s long-term strength lies in building self-reliance while engaging globally on equal terms. Trade deals should strengthen Indian farmers, not sacrifice them. The country must protect its agricultural backbone, negotiate fair tariffs, and ensure that foreign imports do not destroy domestic livelihoods.
True partnership means respecting each other’s economic realities. For India, that reality is clear: agriculture is not just a sector — it is the foundation of economic and social stability. Any trade deal that ignores this truth risks harming millions of lives and weakening the very engine that helped India recover after Covid.
