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The results of the 2026 US midterm elections have landed with far greater force than any pollster predicted.
Democrats didn't just hold their ground in key swing districts — they tore open seats in territory Republicans had considered safe for a generation. Control of both the Senate and the House changed hands, amounting to a blunt referendum on Donald Trump's second term. And across the Atlantic, Tehran is reading the outcome with something close to vindication.
The context here is not complicated. The joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has stretched on for months, and surging oil prices have cut directly into American household budgets. Trump himself, in a post-election interview with Fox News, conceded that the Iran conflict "may very well have" contributed to the Republican collapse.
But Tehran's optimism may be premature. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei poured cold water on the results almost immediately, declaring that anyone expecting US policy to shift simply because a different party holds power is "sorely mistaken." That temperature gap between negotiator and supreme leader reveals a quiet internal debate in Iran: one camp trying to read the tea leaves of American public opinion, the other holding fast to the belief that the hostility is structural, not partisan.
Trump's "Landslide" and the Ballot He Wasn't On
On Truth Social, he wrote that if his name had actually appeared on the ballot, Republicans would have won "by a landslide." The irony is sharp: throughout the entire campaign cycle, he had urged supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," framing the midterms as a personal confidence vote. Now that the verdict is in, he's using his absence as a shield.
The White House line was even more defiant. An official told reporters that Trump "wasn't on the ballot" and blamed "candidate quality" for the losses. But AP's voter surveys tell a different story: roughly six in ten voters held the Trump administration responsible for high living costs, and more than seven in ten wanted Congress to serve as a stronger check on presidential power. The voters were punishing Trump himself.
If anyone is feeling the pain more acutely than Republican candidates, it's Elon Musk.
According to estimates from The Washington Post and the BBC, the world's richest man poured roughly $446 million into Republican campaigns, with the bulk funneled into the Texas Senate race to boost his favored candidate, Ken Paxton. Paxton lost to Democrat James Talarico. Adding insult to injury, Talarico called out the spending directly in his victory speech: "We sent a message to the megadonor billionaires — in this state and in this country, power belongs to the people."
Musk's response on X carried his usual deadpan humor, paired with a shrug emoji: "Apparently my election-interference space lasers didn't work this time." But the market wasn't laughing. Tesla shares fell nearly 6% on the day, SpaceX's valuation reportedly took a hit, and his personal fortune dropped by more than $60 billion in a single session. The risks of political investment were made vividly, expensively real.
Russia's tone was considerably cooler. Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said the Democratic leadership's attitude toward Moscow is "extremely negative" and that there was "nothing new" in the outcome. China's foreign ministry responded briefly, calling the midterms an internal US affair and expressing willingness to work with Washington on implementing the two leaders' shared understandings.
For Trump, the real trouble is only beginning. A Democratic-controlled House can launch investigations, subpoena witnesses, and even pursue impeachment proceedings; the Senate can block his appointments and legislative agenda. After the results, he posted an image of a red hat bearing a single word: VETO. It may be the most accurate preview of the next two years of Washington politics anyone has offered.

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