Chroniclecraze.blogspot.com
A Strategic Lifeline Severed
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait has always been more than a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti. It is the gateway to the Suez Canal, a vital artery for global trade, and — since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran war — Saudi Arabia's primary escape route for its oil exports. That lifeline is now firmly in the hands of the Houthis.
Last week, the Iran-backed rebels completed their capture of the strait's western coastline, seizing the strategically crucial Perim Island (Mayun) and the port city of Mokha. Perim Island sits in the very middle of the strait, dividing it into two shipping channels. Its capture means the Houthis can effectively control — or disrupt — virtually all maritime traffic passing through.
For Saudi Arabia, the implications are nothing short of catastrophic. Before the Houthi advance, Riyadh was exporting around 4.5 million barrels of crude per day from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with roughly 3 million of those barrels exiting through Bab al-Mandeb. By August, that figure had collapsed to just 400,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency reports that Saudi oil exports through Red Sea terminals have dropped nearly 50% overall.
The Pipeline Strike That Changes Everything
As if the maritime blockade were not enough, Saudi Arabia's critical East-West oil pipeline was struck by drones last Thursday, forcing a temporary shutdown of operations. Fires broke out at pumping stations along the pipeline route in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, with satellite imagery showing extensive damage.
The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed the attack, stating that drones originated from Iraq. The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the strike as a "dangerous escalation" and an "unacceptable threat" to the Kingdom's security. For now, Riyadh has opted not to retaliate, giving Baghdad an opportunity to prevent further attacks launched from its territory. But the message is clear: Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is vulnerable, and its enemies know it.
The East-West pipeline was built precisely to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. With Hormuz effectively closed, it became the kingdom's economic lifeline. Now that lifeline has been attacked, and the alternative route through Bab al-Mandeb is controlled by the Houthis.
As if the maritime blockade were not enough, Saudi Arabia's critical East-West oil pipeline was struck by drones last Thursday, forcing a temporary shutdown of operations. Fires broke out at pumping stations along the pipeline route in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, with satellite imagery showing extensive damage.
The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed the attack, stating that drones originated from Iraq. The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the strike as a "dangerous escalation" and an "unacceptable threat" to the Kingdom's security. For now, Riyadh has opted not to retaliate, giving Baghdad an opportunity to prevent further attacks launched from its territory. But the message is clear: Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure is vulnerable, and its enemies know it.
The East-West pipeline was built precisely to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. With Hormuz effectively closed, it became the kingdom's economic lifeline. Now that lifeline has been attacked, and the alternative route through Bab al-Mandeb is controlled by the Houthis.
MBS Calls Trump — and Gets Rejected
The diplomatic dimension of this crisis is perhaps the most revealing. According to multiple reports citing US officials, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice in a single day last Thursday.
During the first call, MBS briefed Trump on the deteriorating battlefield situation, explaining that Houthi forces were advancing toward Mokha and that Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces were retreating. Hours later, he called again — this time with a direct request: authorise US military strikes against Houthi positions.
Trump declined.
The US president's reasoning, according to officials familiar with the discussions, is that Washington wants to keep its military focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rather than opening a new front in Yemen. The administration has instead offered intelligence sharing and targeting assistance — non-combat support that falls far short of what Riyadh requested.
A senior Trump administration official framed the decision in terms of burden-sharing: "The United States is focused on protecting our core national security interests — such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges".
From Riyadh's perspective, that is cold comfort. The Saudis have been fighting the Houthis for over a decade, and they are now facing their most serious military setback in years. The Houthis' rapid advance has been described by Yemen's Saudi-backed government as "painful" and "regrettable". A senior Yemeni military official told the Associated Press that forces were stunned the Saudi air force did not act to prevent the capture of Mokha, just 80 kilometres from the strait.
The diplomatic dimension of this crisis is perhaps the most revealing. According to multiple reports citing US officials, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice in a single day last Thursday.
During the first call, MBS briefed Trump on the deteriorating battlefield situation, explaining that Houthi forces were advancing toward Mokha and that Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces were retreating. Hours later, he called again — this time with a direct request: authorise US military strikes against Houthi positions.
Trump declined.
The US president's reasoning, according to officials familiar with the discussions, is that Washington wants to keep its military focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rather than opening a new front in Yemen. The administration has instead offered intelligence sharing and targeting assistance — non-combat support that falls far short of what Riyadh requested.
A senior Trump administration official framed the decision in terms of burden-sharing: "The United States is focused on protecting our core national security interests — such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges".
From Riyadh's perspective, that is cold comfort. The Saudis have been fighting the Houthis for over a decade, and they are now facing their most serious military setback in years. The Houthis' rapid advance has been described by Yemen's Saudi-backed government as "painful" and "regrettable". A senior Yemeni military official told the Associated Press that forces were stunned the Saudi air force did not act to prevent the capture of Mokha, just 80 kilometres from the strait.
The Global Economic Fallout
The consequences of this crisis extend far beyond Saudi Arabia's borders. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, with Brent crude hitting $108 — the highest level since May. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the situation deteriorates further.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait typically handles about 10% of global seaborne oil traffic. With that route now compromised, oil cargoes must take a far longer journey: up through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, down the western coast of Africa, around the Cape of Good Hope, and across the Indian Ocean. This epic detour adds approximately a month to transit times and significantly increases freight costs.
Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, told CNN: "The Bab al-Mandeb had been a lifeline. Losing that lifeline has been a wake-up call for the market of how unsustainable the situation now is".
For Trump, the economic fallout is particularly inconvenient. With US midterm elections approaching in November, rising oil prices and inflation could damage his party's prospects. Ironically, the president who campaigned on energy dominance now faces an oil crisis that his own military strategy — prioritising Iran over the Houthis — has helped create.
The consequences of this crisis extend far beyond Saudi Arabia's borders. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, with Brent crude hitting $108 — the highest level since May. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the situation deteriorates further.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait typically handles about 10% of global seaborne oil traffic. With that route now compromised, oil cargoes must take a far longer journey: up through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, down the western coast of Africa, around the Cape of Good Hope, and across the Indian Ocean. This epic detour adds approximately a month to transit times and significantly increases freight costs.
Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, told CNN: "The Bab al-Mandeb had been a lifeline. Losing that lifeline has been a wake-up call for the market of how unsustainable the situation now is".
For Trump, the economic fallout is particularly inconvenient. With US midterm elections approaching in November, rising oil prices and inflation could damage his party's prospects. Ironically, the president who campaigned on energy dominance now faces an oil crisis that his own military strategy — prioritising Iran over the Houthis — has helped create.
A Relationship Under Strain
The refusal to strike the Houthis is not an isolated incident. It reflects a broader deterioration in the US-Saudi relationship that has been building for months.
In May, Trump was forced to abandon "Project Freedom" — an operation to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — after Saudi Arabia refused to allow US aircraft to use its airspace or bases for the mission. The Saudis were reportedly furious that Washington had announced the operation without consulting them first.
More recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Gulf region but conspicuously avoided Saudi Arabia, visiting the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain instead. Saudi officials reportedly took this as a deliberate snub.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Trump administration is even considering withdrawing some troops and weapons from Saudi Arabia, viewing the kingdom as insufficiently supportive during the war with Iran.
Yet Saudi Arabia continues to view the United States as its primary strategic partner. In July, Riyadh signed a civilian nuclear agreement with Washington, choosing American technology and expertise over Russian or Chinese alternatives. The kingdom has also proposed hosting a new maritime security coalition headquarters to defend Red Sea navigation, stepping up as a regional security provider even as it seeks US support.
The refusal to strike the Houthis is not an isolated incident. It reflects a broader deterioration in the US-Saudi relationship that has been building for months.
In May, Trump was forced to abandon "Project Freedom" — an operation to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz — after Saudi Arabia refused to allow US aircraft to use its airspace or bases for the mission. The Saudis were reportedly furious that Washington had announced the operation without consulting them first.
More recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Gulf region but conspicuously avoided Saudi Arabia, visiting the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain instead. Saudi officials reportedly took this as a deliberate snub.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Trump administration is even considering withdrawing some troops and weapons from Saudi Arabia, viewing the kingdom as insufficiently supportive during the war with Iran.
Yet Saudi Arabia continues to view the United States as its primary strategic partner. In July, Riyadh signed a civilian nuclear agreement with Washington, choosing American technology and expertise over Russian or Chinese alternatives. The kingdom has also proposed hosting a new maritime security coalition headquarters to defend Red Sea navigation, stepping up as a regional security provider even as it seeks US support.
What Comes Next?
The Houthis have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and have vowed to continue attacks until their demands are met. Saudi Arabia has warned it will react "firmly" to the attacks, and the Riyadh-led coalition has already conducted more than 50 strikes in response to recent Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities.
But the fundamental problem remains: Saudi Arabia cannot secure Bab al-Mandeb alone. The Houthis are entrenched, Iran continues to provide support, and the US — for now — is unwilling to commit direct military force.
For Trump, the calculation is clear: he does not want to open a new front in Yemen while the war with Iran remains unresolved. But for Saudi Arabia, the message is equally clear: when the chips are down, the United States may not be there to help.
Whether this constitutes a "betrayal" depends on one's perspective. What is undeniable is that Saudi Arabia is facing its most serious security crisis in years, and its most powerful ally has declined to intervene. The crown prince asked twice. The answer was no.
In the waters of Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are now the ones in control. And in Riyadh, the question of whether Washington can still be relied upon hangs heavily in the air.
The Houthis have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and have vowed to continue attacks until their demands are met. Saudi Arabia has warned it will react "firmly" to the attacks, and the Riyadh-led coalition has already conducted more than 50 strikes in response to recent Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities.
But the fundamental problem remains: Saudi Arabia cannot secure Bab al-Mandeb alone. The Houthis are entrenched, Iran continues to provide support, and the US — for now — is unwilling to commit direct military force.
For Trump, the calculation is clear: he does not want to open a new front in Yemen while the war with Iran remains unresolved. But for Saudi Arabia, the message is equally clear: when the chips are down, the United States may not be there to help.
Whether this constitutes a "betrayal" depends on one's perspective. What is undeniable is that Saudi Arabia is facing its most serious security crisis in years, and its most powerful ally has declined to intervene. The crown prince asked twice. The answer was no.
In the waters of Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis are now the ones in control. And in Riyadh, the question of whether Washington can still be relied upon hangs heavily in the air.
No comments:
Post a Comment