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Meta Description: The rebel commander’s move has weakened Amit Shah’s position and paved the way for a rapprochement with Mamata Banerjee. Meanwhile, a new political entity adds a fresh twist. Get the latest West Bengal political analysis.
The Unravelling of a RebellionThe dust has barely settled on West Bengal’s seismic political upheaval, yet the ground beneath the victors is already shifting. In what is emerging as the most dramatic turn since the May 2026 assembly elections, the rebel commander whose defection was meant to be the final nail in Mamata Banerjee’s political coffin is now reportedly signalling a homecoming . This isn’t merely a minor realignment; it is a body blow to Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s carefully orchestrated strategy in the state.
The narrative of a fractured Trinamool Congress (TMC) was central to the BJP’s campaign. The sight of once-loyal soldiers rallying behind Ritabrata Banerjee gave the saffron camp the political ammunition it needed to justify the "parivartan" (change) it promised. However, with the rebel faction leader’s move to weaken Shah’s position, the tables have turned, creating a new variable in an already volatile equation . The political corridors are abuzz: is this the beginning of the end for the rebellion?
The "Homecoming" That Threatens Shah’s Blueprint
Amit Shah’s visit to Siliguri this week was meant to project strength. Standing before a crowd at the Kawakhali ground, he painted a picture of a Bengal finally free from "bomb blasts" and "cadre raj," lauding Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari for restoring the rule of law . He criticized Mamata Banerjee for delaying the implementation of the three new criminal codes, taking credit for the changes now being rolled out under the BJP regime.
Yet, even as the Home Minister spoke, a counter-narrative was gaining momentum in Kolkata. TMC leader Kunal Ghosh made a sensational claim that sent shockwaves through the BJP camp: "Six MPs and more than 50 per cent of the MLAs are in touch with Mamata Didi" . Ghosh alleged that the only thing preventing a mass exodus from the rebel camp back to the TMC is the "misuse of police" and pressure from central agencies backed by the BJP .
This is a significant development. If true, it suggests that the rebel faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee—which claims the support of 65 MLAs and is currently staking a claim to the TMC name and symbol before the Election Commission—is a house of cards .
Amit Shah’s visit to Siliguri this week was meant to project strength. Standing before a crowd at the Kawakhali ground, he painted a picture of a Bengal finally free from "bomb blasts" and "cadre raj," lauding Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari for restoring the rule of law . He criticized Mamata Banerjee for delaying the implementation of the three new criminal codes, taking credit for the changes now being rolled out under the BJP regime.
Yet, even as the Home Minister spoke, a counter-narrative was gaining momentum in Kolkata. TMC leader Kunal Ghosh made a sensational claim that sent shockwaves through the BJP camp: "Six MPs and more than 50 per cent of the MLAs are in touch with Mamata Didi" . Ghosh alleged that the only thing preventing a mass exodus from the rebel camp back to the TMC is the "misuse of police" and pressure from central agencies backed by the BJP .
This is a significant development. If true, it suggests that the rebel faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee—which claims the support of 65 MLAs and is currently staking a claim to the TMC name and symbol before the Election Commission—is a house of cards .
A New Twist: The Emergence of a Separate Entity
While the focus remains on the potential homecoming of the rebel commander, the political landscape has been further complicated by the "launch of a separate political entity" . The rupture within the TMC was not confined to the assembly. At the national level, 20 of the party’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs broke away and merged with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) .
This new alliance, formed by rebels at the Centre, adds a layer of complexity to the ongoing crisis. With the NCPI positioned within the NDA fold, the BJP has effectively siphoned off a significant portion of the TMC’s parliamentary strength. However, the dynamics on the ground—with legislators reportedly eager to return to Mamata—highlight the disconnect between the parliamentary rebellion and the grassroots reality. The "new variable" isn't just a new party; it’s the question of whether these national-level defectors will follow the lead of the state-level MLAs if they make a U-turn.
While the focus remains on the potential homecoming of the rebel commander, the political landscape has been further complicated by the "launch of a separate political entity" . The rupture within the TMC was not confined to the assembly. At the national level, 20 of the party’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs broke away and merged with the Nationalist Citizens Party of India (NCPI) .
This new alliance, formed by rebels at the Centre, adds a layer of complexity to the ongoing crisis. With the NCPI positioned within the NDA fold, the BJP has effectively siphoned off a significant portion of the TMC’s parliamentary strength. However, the dynamics on the ground—with legislators reportedly eager to return to Mamata—highlight the disconnect between the parliamentary rebellion and the grassroots reality. The "new variable" isn't just a new party; it’s the question of whether these national-level defectors will follow the lead of the state-level MLAs if they make a U-turn.
Celebrations in Mamata’s Camp
For the Mamata Banerjee camp, these developments are a reason for "cautious optimism" . The July 21 Martyrs' Day rally—traditionally the TMC’s biggest show of strength—was held against a backdrop of uncertainty . Just months ago, Mamata was reduced to a "Facebook Live leader" in the eyes of her detractors. Yet, she returned to the streets, drawing a crowd that far exceeded the 2,500-cap imposed by the court .
Addressing her supporters, Mamata invoked the spirit of 1997 when she founded the party with just a handful of loyalists. "Today we are much stronger than when we started the party. The game is still on (Khela sesh noe, Khela abarhobe)," she declared . The defiance is palpable. The TMC leadership is framing the rebels as "BJP’s pillows"—useful only until the objective of destroying the party is achieved—and betting on a grassroots revival .
The signs of returning loyalty are also evident in the rebel camp itself. Cracks are appearing in the Ritabrata-led faction, particularly among the Muslim MLAs who fear that the rebel leader might ultimately align with the BJP, or that the rebellion serves the saffron party's agenda . Mamata’s political managers are aggressively counter-poaching, dialing up vulnerable first-time MLAs to bring them back into the fold .
For the Mamata Banerjee camp, these developments are a reason for "cautious optimism" . The July 21 Martyrs' Day rally—traditionally the TMC’s biggest show of strength—was held against a backdrop of uncertainty . Just months ago, Mamata was reduced to a "Facebook Live leader" in the eyes of her detractors. Yet, she returned to the streets, drawing a crowd that far exceeded the 2,500-cap imposed by the court .
Addressing her supporters, Mamata invoked the spirit of 1997 when she founded the party with just a handful of loyalists. "Today we are much stronger than when we started the party. The game is still on (Khela sesh noe, Khela abarhobe)," she declared . The defiance is palpable. The TMC leadership is framing the rebels as "BJP’s pillows"—useful only until the objective of destroying the party is achieved—and betting on a grassroots revival .
The signs of returning loyalty are also evident in the rebel camp itself. Cracks are appearing in the Ritabrata-led faction, particularly among the Muslim MLAs who fear that the rebel leader might ultimately align with the BJP, or that the rebellion serves the saffron party's agenda . Mamata’s political managers are aggressively counter-poaching, dialing up vulnerable first-time MLAs to bring them back into the fold .
A Complex Counter-Offensive
The ongoing battle is a multi-dimensional war. The Election Commission has become the battleground, with both factions staking a claim to the TMC name and the iconic "grass and flowers" symbol . The Mamata faction has accused the Election Commission of working on the behest of Shah to favour the rebels .
Meanwhile, Abhishek Banerjee has issued a public challenge to the rebels, offering to resign from his party post "within an hour" if they return to Mamata . This is a masterstroke. By calling the rebels' bluff and positioning himself as the sacrificial lamb, Abhishek is trying to isolate those who have used him as an excuse for their defection .
The ongoing battle is a multi-dimensional war. The Election Commission has become the battleground, with both factions staking a claim to the TMC name and the iconic "grass and flowers" symbol . The Mamata faction has accused the Election Commission of working on the behest of Shah to favour the rebels .
Meanwhile, Abhishek Banerjee has issued a public challenge to the rebels, offering to resign from his party post "within an hour" if they return to Mamata . This is a masterstroke. By calling the rebels' bluff and positioning himself as the sacrificial lamb, Abhishek is trying to isolate those who have used him as an excuse for their defection .
Conclusion: The Game is Far From Over
As a journalist with a quarter-century of experience covering Indian politics, I can say with confidence: never count out Mamata Banerjee. The narrative of her political demise has been written multiple times—during the Nandigram movement and after the Left Front’s attempts to suppress her—and each time, she has emerged from the rubble.
The rebel commander’s move to weaken Shah and signal a homecoming is a testament to the enduring loyalty Mamata commands among the grassroots. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. The formation of the new political entity, the battle over the party symbol, and the full weight of the state machinery behind the BJP make this her toughest fight.
For now, the TMC is wounded but not dead. The "twist" isn't just the rebellion; it's the counter-rebellion brewing within the rebel camp. And if the murmurs of "over 50% MLAs" returning are true, Amit Shah may soon have to deal with a political headache of his own making. The game, indeed, is far from over.
As a journalist with a quarter-century of experience covering Indian politics, I can say with confidence: never count out Mamata Banerjee. The narrative of her political demise has been written multiple times—during the Nandigram movement and after the Left Front’s attempts to suppress her—and each time, she has emerged from the rubble.
The rebel commander’s move to weaken Shah and signal a homecoming is a testament to the enduring loyalty Mamata commands among the grassroots. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. The formation of the new political entity, the battle over the party symbol, and the full weight of the state machinery behind the BJP make this her toughest fight.
For now, the TMC is wounded but not dead. The "twist" isn't just the rebellion; it's the counter-rebellion brewing within the rebel camp. And if the murmurs of "over 50% MLAs" returning are true, Amit Shah may soon have to deal with a political headache of his own making. The game, indeed, is far from over.
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