For a quarter of a century, I have watched the ebb and flow of power in the Gulf. I have reported on the tanker wars of the 1980s, the sanctions regime of the 1990s, the optimism of the JCPOA, and the shock of the US withdrawal from that deal. I have witnessed Iran’s pragmatism and its obstinacy, and America’s overwhelming might alongside its often-tragic inability to translate that might into political victory.
Yet, in all those years, I have rarely seen the waters of the Persian Gulf as murky, and the geopolitical landscape as volatile, as they are today. The headline is deceptively simple: Iran is bold, and the US is desperate. But the reality, as always in this region, is far more complex and deeply worrying.
The New Voice of Defiance: Khamenei’s Gamble
The death of the former Supreme Leader was a seismic shock that many predicted would throw Iran into chaos. Instead, his successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged with a belligerence that seems to surprise even his most hardened adversaries .
His recent declaration that the only place for America in the Persian Gulf is "at the bottom of its waters" is not mere rhetoric . It is a calculated, high-stakes bet on a grand strategy.
Khamenei is betting that the United States lacks the stomach for a prolonged war and that the economic pain he is inflicting on the West—through soaring oil prices—will be Washington’s Achilles’ heel. He has framed Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities not as bargaining chips, but as "national assets" to be protected with the same ferocity as the country’s land and airspace . This is not the language of a man seeking a deal. It is the language of a man preparing for a long siege.
The death of the former Supreme Leader was a seismic shock that many predicted would throw Iran into chaos. Instead, his successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged with a belligerence that seems to surprise even his most hardened adversaries .
His recent declaration that the only place for America in the Persian Gulf is "at the bottom of its waters" is not mere rhetoric . It is a calculated, high-stakes bet on a grand strategy.
Khamenei is betting that the United States lacks the stomach for a prolonged war and that the economic pain he is inflicting on the West—through soaring oil prices—will be Washington’s Achilles’ heel. He has framed Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities not as bargaining chips, but as "national assets" to be protected with the same ferocity as the country’s land and airspace . This is not the language of a man seeking a deal. It is the language of a man preparing for a long siege.
‘Economic D-Day’: A Move Born of Strategic Failure
On the other side of the chessboard, the United States appears to be in a reactive, rather than proactive, posture. The announcement of "Operation Economic Outcast" and a new wave of "maximum pressure" sanctions was sold by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the "single greatest financial offensive ever" against Iran . But reading the tea leaves from across the region, this feels less like a masterstroke and more like a pivot born of strategic exhaustion.
After months of military confrontation, the US has failed to force a decisive capitulation. The quick victory that was anticipated by some has not materialised . The war has seen US military assets depleted, key bases in Bahrain and Kuwait damaged or rendered unsafe, and the Pentagon potentially forced to redirect resources away from its primary strategic rivalry with China .
As one expert put it, the pivot to economic warfare is an admission that "military force has failed to deliver the quick victory it expected" . It is the strategy of a power that is running out of runway.
On the other side of the chessboard, the United States appears to be in a reactive, rather than proactive, posture. The announcement of "Operation Economic Outcast" and a new wave of "maximum pressure" sanctions was sold by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the "single greatest financial offensive ever" against Iran . But reading the tea leaves from across the region, this feels less like a masterstroke and more like a pivot born of strategic exhaustion.
After months of military confrontation, the US has failed to force a decisive capitulation. The quick victory that was anticipated by some has not materialised . The war has seen US military assets depleted, key bases in Bahrain and Kuwait damaged or rendered unsafe, and the Pentagon potentially forced to redirect resources away from its primary strategic rivalry with China .
As one expert put it, the pivot to economic warfare is an admission that "military force has failed to deliver the quick victory it expected" . It is the strategy of a power that is running out of runway.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Centre of Gravity
The battleground for this contest of wills has become the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes . The ceasefire that was brokered with such hope just a few months ago has become a façade . The US interprets the clause on safe passage as meaning free navigation, while Tehran sees it as a mandate for its own authority to regulate the waterway .
What we are witnessing in the Gulf is a strategic blockade that is disrupting global energy markets. Oil prices have surged, and the economic pain is being felt as far away as the US, where voters are feeling the pinch at the petrol pump just ahead of crucial mid-term elections . Iran has effectively weaponised the strait. By keeping it in a state of perpetual, low-level disruption, they are able to raise insurance premiums, divert shipping routes, and exert pressure on the global economy without necessarily committing to a full-scale conflict .
The battleground for this contest of wills has become the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes . The ceasefire that was brokered with such hope just a few months ago has become a façade . The US interprets the clause on safe passage as meaning free navigation, while Tehran sees it as a mandate for its own authority to regulate the waterway .
What we are witnessing in the Gulf is a strategic blockade that is disrupting global energy markets. Oil prices have surged, and the economic pain is being felt as far away as the US, where voters are feeling the pinch at the petrol pump just ahead of crucial mid-term elections . Iran has effectively weaponised the strait. By keeping it in a state of perpetual, low-level disruption, they are able to raise insurance premiums, divert shipping routes, and exert pressure on the global economy without necessarily committing to a full-scale conflict .
A Region Without a Safety Net
For the Gulf states caught in the middle, this is a waking nightmare. The US military presence is a vital security guarantee against Iranian missiles and drones, but it also makes their territories a target . The economic pressure from Washington to cut ties with Tehran is fierce, but doing so could provoke Iranian retaliation that draws them deeper into the conflict .
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman are all walking a diplomatic tightrope. While the UAE has decisively cut economic ties, other nations maintain diplomatic channels . Meanwhile, American efforts to secure an alternative shipping route through Oman show just how precarious the situation has become .
For the Gulf states caught in the middle, this is a waking nightmare. The US military presence is a vital security guarantee against Iranian missiles and drones, but it also makes their territories a target . The economic pressure from Washington to cut ties with Tehran is fierce, but doing so could provoke Iranian retaliation that draws them deeper into the conflict .
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman are all walking a diplomatic tightrope. While the UAE has decisively cut economic ties, other nations maintain diplomatic channels . Meanwhile, American efforts to secure an alternative shipping route through Oman show just how precarious the situation has become .
The View from 25 Years On: An Unstable Equilibrium
After a quarter of a century in this region, I can say with some confidence that what we are seeing now is a dangerous new phase. This is not a return to the status quo. This is a new, unstable equilibrium where both superpowers are locked in a contest of economic and military attrition.
Khamenei’s rhetoric is born of a belief that time is on Iran’s side. Trump’s pivot to sanctions is a sign that time is not on America’s. The United States cannot afford a forever war, and Tehran, with its missile arsenal and its chokehold on the strait, has made the cost of victory too high for conventional means.
The people of the Gulf, and the global economy that depends on its oil, are now hostages to a confrontation that shows no sign of resolution. The question is not whether the US is out of the Gulf, but what chaos will be left in its wake if it ever truly departs.
After a quarter of a century in this region, I can say with some confidence that what we are seeing now is a dangerous new phase. This is not a return to the status quo. This is a new, unstable equilibrium where both superpowers are locked in a contest of economic and military attrition.
Khamenei’s rhetoric is born of a belief that time is on Iran’s side. Trump’s pivot to sanctions is a sign that time is not on America’s. The United States cannot afford a forever war, and Tehran, with its missile arsenal and its chokehold on the strait, has made the cost of victory too high for conventional means.
The people of the Gulf, and the global economy that depends on its oil, are now hostages to a confrontation that shows no sign of resolution. The question is not whether the US is out of the Gulf, but what chaos will be left in its wake if it ever truly departs.
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