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| Donald Trump |
As Iran releases footage of the seventh and eighth waves of its missile and drone strikes, one question looms large: how did President Trump’s audacious plan to impose a 20% toll on the Strait of Hormuz unravel within just 24 hours? And more critically, are we watching the opening act of a new, catastrophic conflict?
The Failed Plan: Trump’s 20% Toll on the Strait of Hormuz
In a move that stunned international observers, President Trump declared the US the new "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" on Monday. To pay for this "service," he announced a 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo shipped through the vital waterway .
The announcement was immediately met with legal and diplomatic pushback. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) firmly stated that there is "no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait" .
Whether driven by these objections or behind-the-scenes lobbying from Gulf leaders, President Trump was forced to withdraw the plan. In a swift reversal, he announced he would replace the toll with vague "Trade and Investment Deals," stating that Gulf states would make "MASSIVE" investments in the US instead .
In a move that stunned international observers, President Trump declared the US the new "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" on Monday. To pay for this "service," he announced a 20% reimbursement fee on all cargo shipped through the vital waterway .
The announcement was immediately met with legal and diplomatic pushback. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) firmly stated that there is "no legal basis through which to introduce mandatory tolls simply to transit through a strait" .
Whether driven by these objections or behind-the-scenes lobbying from Gulf leaders, President Trump was forced to withdraw the plan. In a swift reversal, he announced he would replace the toll with vague "Trade and Investment Deals," stating that Gulf states would make "MASSIVE" investments in the US instead .
Why Trump’s Plan Flopped
The president’s proposal was widely viewed as a coercive measure. By threatening to tax the world's oil supply, Trump risked alienating allies and turning the global community against the US. The plan was legally dubious, economically aggressive, and ultimately unsustainable. His immediate retraction was a diplomatic defeat, signaling that even the Trump administration recognized the overreach of trying to monetize a vital international chokepoint.
Iran’s Calculated Response: Targeting the US Arsenal
While Trump was scrambling to clarify his position, Iran was on the offensive. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched "Operation Nasr 2," a series of devastating attacks on US infrastructure across the region.
According to Iranian military statements, the attacks targeted the US Fifth Fleet's command center in Bahrain, logistics hubs in Kuwait, and the Al-Azraq base in Jordan .
Kuwait: Iran claims to have destroyed satellite communications centers, missile and air defense radars, Patriot systems, and HIMARS launchers in Kuwait . There are also reports of attacks on Kuwaiti naval vessels .
Bahrain: The headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet was reportedly struck, hitting command facilities and fuel depots .
Jordan: The Al-Azraq base, housing F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets, was targeted, with Iran claiming to have destroyed hangars and drones .
While Trump was scrambling to clarify his position, Iran was on the offensive. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched "Operation Nasr 2," a series of devastating attacks on US infrastructure across the region.
According to Iranian military statements, the attacks targeted the US Fifth Fleet's command center in Bahrain, logistics hubs in Kuwait, and the Al-Azraq base in Jordan .
Kuwait: Iran claims to have destroyed satellite communications centers, missile and air defense radars, Patriot systems, and HIMARS launchers in Kuwait . There are also reports of attacks on Kuwaiti naval vessels .
Bahrain: The headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet was reportedly struck, hitting command facilities and fuel depots .
Jordan: The Al-Azraq base, housing F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets, was targeted, with Iran claiming to have destroyed hangars and drones .
This multi-front retaliation demonstrates Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders, directly threatening US assets that have been central to operations in the region.
The Economic Warfare: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis
The conflict has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20-25% of the world's oil and 20% of its LNG pass . Iran's re-imposition of a blockade has crippled global shipping traffic.
Traffic Collapse: Shipping data shows transit has collapsed, with figures dropping to as low as 14 crossings per day, down from a pre-war average of 120-140 .
Oil Prices: Brent crude prices have surged past $85 per barrel, with predictions of further spikes if the conflict continues .
The conflict has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20-25% of the world's oil and 20% of its LNG pass . Iran's re-imposition of a blockade has crippled global shipping traffic.
Traffic Collapse: Shipping data shows transit has collapsed, with figures dropping to as low as 14 crossings per day, down from a pre-war average of 120-140 .
Oil Prices: Brent crude prices have surged past $85 per barrel, with predictions of further spikes if the conflict continues .
A New Oil Crisis?
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long period, the world will indeed face a severe energy crisis. While Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics notes the market has shown surprising resilience by tapping into strategic reserves and using alternative routes like Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, he warns that this resilience is finite .
Analyst Rory Johnston noted that the market survived the first shock due to abundant inventories, but those buffers are now depleted. Prolonged closure would mean "much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk" .
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long period, the world will indeed face a severe energy crisis. While Neil Atkinson of the National Center for Energy Analytics notes the market has shown surprising resilience by tapping into strategic reserves and using alternative routes like Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, he warns that this resilience is finite .
Analyst Rory Johnston noted that the market survived the first shock due to abundant inventories, but those buffers are now depleted. Prolonged closure would mean "much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk" .
Is Trump Trapped?
The US finds itself in a dangerous position. The ceasefire established in June has evaporated, and the vague MOU signed then has left too many ambiguities—particularly regarding control of the Strait .
Analysts like Aaron David Miller believe the Trump administration may have underestimated Iran's resolve. For Tehran, controlling the Strait is more valuable than a nuclear arsenal . Trump’s threat to hit "power plants" and "bridges" next week unless Iran negotiates paints a picture of escalating brinkmanship .
While Trump threatens destruction, Iran seems prepared for a long war of attrition. Thomas Juneau of Chatham House suggests that while the ceasefire is "over," the door for diplomacy is still open . However, with US strikes continuing to degrade Iranian capabilities, and Iran retaliating by closing the Strait, the cycle of violence appears relentless.
The US finds itself in a dangerous position. The ceasefire established in June has evaporated, and the vague MOU signed then has left too many ambiguities—particularly regarding control of the Strait .
Analysts like Aaron David Miller believe the Trump administration may have underestimated Iran's resolve. For Tehran, controlling the Strait is more valuable than a nuclear arsenal . Trump’s threat to hit "power plants" and "bridges" next week unless Iran negotiates paints a picture of escalating brinkmanship .
While Trump threatens destruction, Iran seems prepared for a long war of attrition. Thomas Juneau of Chatham House suggests that while the ceasefire is "over," the door for diplomacy is still open . However, with US strikes continuing to degrade Iranian capabilities, and Iran retaliating by closing the Strait, the cycle of violence appears relentless.
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