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| Red Sea |
The world’s supply chains are staring down the barrel of a gun. And that gun is trained on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—the narrow, 29-kilometre-wide chokepoint that separates the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa . For weeks, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been escalating their Red Sea assault, and the situation has now reached a critical inflection point. With a Saudi tanker struck and commercial vessels being forced to make mid-journey U-turns, the fragile "plan B" for global oil shipping is unravelling before our eyes .
As an analyst recently noted, while commercial traffic is still braving the strait under the threat of drones and missiles, a rising tide of vessels is now turning back. Experts warn that this prolonged standoff could cripple global supply chains, spike oil prices, and send freight costs soaring.
The "Gate of Tears" Becomes a Gate of Fire
The Bab al-Mandeb, which translates to "Gate of Tears" in Arabic, is one of the world's most vital maritime thoroughfares . It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal. Roughly 12% of global trade and about 7% of global oil supplies transit this passage during normal times . For Saudi Arabia, it has recently become an indispensable "plan B" .
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Riyadh has been relying on its East-West pipeline to pump crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu . From there, tankers have been sailing south through the Bab al-Mandeb to reach Asian markets like China, India, and Japan. In recent months, about 7.4 million barrels a day—roughly 7% of global energy demand—had been flowing through this corridor . In June alone, nearly 92% of Saudi seaborne crude exports departed from Yanbu .
However, the Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, have now declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, opening a dangerous "new front" in the Middle East conflict . The rebels have explicitly warned shipping companies against loading or unloading at Saudi ports, threatening to treat any vessels involved as legitimate military targets .
The Bab al-Mandeb, which translates to "Gate of Tears" in Arabic, is one of the world's most vital maritime thoroughfares . It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal. Roughly 12% of global trade and about 7% of global oil supplies transit this passage during normal times . For Saudi Arabia, it has recently become an indispensable "plan B" .
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Riyadh has been relying on its East-West pipeline to pump crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu . From there, tankers have been sailing south through the Bab al-Mandeb to reach Asian markets like China, India, and Japan. In recent months, about 7.4 million barrels a day—roughly 7% of global energy demand—had been flowing through this corridor . In June alone, nearly 92% of Saudi seaborne crude exports departed from Yanbu .
However, the Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, have now declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, opening a dangerous "new front" in the Middle East conflict . The rebels have explicitly warned shipping companies against loading or unloading at Saudi ports, threatening to treat any vessels involved as legitimate military targets .
The First U-Turns: A Market Rattled
The warnings are no longer just rhetoric. On July 21, the shipping world witnessed a historic moment: the first recorded instance of commercial oil tankers forced to change their routes directly due to Houthi threats .
Two very large crude carriers—the Xin Long Yang and the Rodos—had just loaded millions of barrels of Saudi crude at Yanbu, bound for China and India respectively. Instead of heading south through the Bab al-Mandeb, they turned around mid-voyage. They are now heading north towards the Suez Canal . A third vessel, the Amazon, also altered its course .
This move is not a simple detour. It represents a monumental logistical and financial headache. Because fully loaded VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) cannot pass through the Suez Canal at full draft, they are forced to offload part of their cargo at the Egyptian port of Ain Sukhna. This cargo must then be pumped through the SUMED pipeline across Egypt and reloaded on the Mediterranean side, adding weeks to the journey .
If the Bab al-Mandeb effectively closes, Asian buyers face a nightmare scenario. Instead of an 20-day journey via the Red Sea, vessels are looking at a 50-day voyage around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa . As Professor Sanjoy Paul from the University of Technology Sydney notes, this "plan C" route comes with "extended travel time and delays in shipping operations, and becomes more expensive" .
The warnings are no longer just rhetoric. On July 21, the shipping world witnessed a historic moment: the first recorded instance of commercial oil tankers forced to change their routes directly due to Houthi threats .
Two very large crude carriers—the Xin Long Yang and the Rodos—had just loaded millions of barrels of Saudi crude at Yanbu, bound for China and India respectively. Instead of heading south through the Bab al-Mandeb, they turned around mid-voyage. They are now heading north towards the Suez Canal . A third vessel, the Amazon, also altered its course .
This move is not a simple detour. It represents a monumental logistical and financial headache. Because fully loaded VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) cannot pass through the Suez Canal at full draft, they are forced to offload part of their cargo at the Egyptian port of Ain Sukhna. This cargo must then be pumped through the SUMED pipeline across Egypt and reloaded on the Mediterranean side, adding weeks to the journey .
If the Bab al-Mandeb effectively closes, Asian buyers face a nightmare scenario. Instead of an 20-day journey via the Red Sea, vessels are looking at a 50-day voyage around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa . As Professor Sanjoy Paul from the University of Technology Sydney notes, this "plan C" route comes with "extended travel time and delays in shipping operations, and becomes more expensive" .
The Domino Effect: Oil Prices and Inflation
The ramifications of these attacks are already hitting the global economy where it hurts the most: the wallet. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in months, with Brent crude spiking over 6% on fears of dual chokepoint disruptions .
The impact is set to ricochet far beyond the Middle East. Kenya, for example, has raised an official alarm, warning that the disruptions could "increase fuel prices and pile fresh inflationary pressure on the country’s economy" . The Kenyan government rightly pointed out that disruptions to the Red Sea route constrain international trade and "drive-up maritime insurance and freight costs," which are ultimately passed on to consumers .
These are not just shipping issues; they are cost-of-living issues.
The ramifications of these attacks are already hitting the global economy where it hurts the most: the wallet. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel for the first time in months, with Brent crude spiking over 6% on fears of dual chokepoint disruptions .
The impact is set to ricochet far beyond the Middle East. Kenya, for example, has raised an official alarm, warning that the disruptions could "increase fuel prices and pile fresh inflationary pressure on the country’s economy" . The Kenyan government rightly pointed out that disruptions to the Red Sea route constrain international trade and "drive-up maritime insurance and freight costs," which are ultimately passed on to consumers .
These are not just shipping issues; they are cost-of-living issues.
A Perilous Spiral of Escalation
The situation on the ground is deteriorating into a dangerous tit-for-tat. Saudi Arabia has retaliated against the Houthi attacks by launching air strikes on military targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeida . This has prompted the Houthis to vow further retaliation .
Meanwhile, the United States has drawn a red line. President Donald Trump has warned that Washington will hold Iran responsible for the Houthi attacks and promised "major military punishment" if they continue . This threat of direct US involvement against Iran escalates the conflict to a level that could plunge the entire region into a broader war .
The situation on the ground is deteriorating into a dangerous tit-for-tat. Saudi Arabia has retaliated against the Houthi attacks by launching air strikes on military targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeida . This has prompted the Houthis to vow further retaliation .
Meanwhile, the United States has drawn a red line. President Donald Trump has warned that Washington will hold Iran responsible for the Houthi attacks and promised "major military punishment" if they continue . This threat of direct US involvement against Iran escalates the conflict to a level that could plunge the entire region into a broader war .
What Happens Next?
The current situation represents a perilous "two straits" problem . With Hormuz blocked and the Bab al-Mandeb under siege, the world's energy supply is trapped. As Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King's College London, warned, "A simultaneous crisis at Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would produce a much larger shock than either blockade alone" .
If this crisis persists, we are looking at a scenario where global supply chains fragment, energy costs remain high, and the world economy could tip into a severe slowdown. The "Gate of Tears" is living up to its name, and for global trade, the tears are only just beginning to flow.
The current situation represents a perilous "two straits" problem . With Hormuz blocked and the Bab al-Mandeb under siege, the world's energy supply is trapped. As Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King's College London, warned, "A simultaneous crisis at Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would produce a much larger shock than either blockade alone" .
If this crisis persists, we are looking at a scenario where global supply chains fragment, energy costs remain high, and the world economy could tip into a severe slowdown. The "Gate of Tears" is living up to its name, and for global trade, the tears are only just beginning to flow.
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