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| Narender Modi |
Is New Delhi quietly recalibrating its West Asia strategy? Recent geopolitical tremors suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi is considering a strategic tilt toward Tehran—a move that could leave Israel deeply unsettled and place Turkey and Pakistan firmly in New Delhi’s crosshairs.
For decades, India has walked a tightrope in West Asia, maintaining cordial relations with Iran while quietly building a robust strategic partnership with Israel. But the ground beneath this balancing act is shifting. With Iran’s regional influence surging, the United States pursuing a historic rapprochement with Tehran, and the Turkey-Pakistan axis growing bolder, India faces a defining moment in its foreign policy. Let’s break down the geopolitical calculus.
Why Iran’s Rising Clout Is Forcing India to Rethink
Iran has long been a cornerstone of India’s West Asia policy—a vital energy supplier, a gateway to Central Asia via the Chabahar Port, and a civilisation state with deep historical ties to the subcontinent. But Tehran’s growing regional power, coupled with the recent US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, is compelling New Delhi to revisit its approach.
The preliminary US-Iran peace agreement has significant implications for India, including energy security, the revival of the Chabahar Port project, and broader connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia . For India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after months of disruption offers enormous relief . During the conflict, disruptions in Gulf shipping pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, severely impacting India’s current account deficit .
However, the deal is fragile. Experts caution that any collapse in negotiations could once again threaten shipping lanes and energy supplies . India’s security establishment is watching closely—not merely because of oil prices, but because of the wider geopolitical consequences across the Indian Ocean region .
The Chabahar Port factor looms large. The US sanctions waiver expired on April 26, 2026, leaving India’s $120 million investment in limbo . Any improvement in US-Iran ties could reduce uncertainty around the port’s long-term viability, giving India direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan . As former ambassador K P Fabian noted, improved US-Iran relations would create favourable conditions for the revival of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and broader connectivity projects .
Yet India’s diplomatic response to the crisis exposed its limitations. While Pakistan emerged as a credible mediator between Washington and Tehran, India remained conspicuously absent from the peace table . Pakistani analysts have argued that India’s closeness to Israel and the US made Tehran suspicious of New Delhi’s neutrality . This is a sobering realisation for a country that once prided itself on strategic autonomy.
The Israel-India Partnership: A Setback or a Reset?
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Israel just days before the West Asian conflict broke out sent a powerful signal: India stands with Israel, firmly, with full conviction . India co-sponsored a UN Security Council resolution reprimanding Iran’s retaliatory strikes, while remaining conspicuously silent on the initial US-Israeli assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader .
This tilt toward the US-Israel axis has come at a diplomatic cost. India’s traditionally balanced policy in West Asia—maintaining ties with Iran, Gulf Arabs, and Israel simultaneously—has been compromised . The government faced international ridicule that its misalignment with Israel leaves it “like a beached whale in the Indian Ocean” .
But is this a genuine setback? Not necessarily. The India-Israel defence partnership has evolved to joint missile development, drone acquisitions, and AI cooperation . Intelligence cooperation and arms procurement have been brought into the open, far removed from the discreet relationship of the past . Israel remains deeply embedded in India’s security architecture, from the Kargil War to cutting-edge defence technology .
What we are witnessing is not an abandonment of Israel, but a recalibration. As global fault lines sharpen, India is making one thing clear: it will not abandon strategic advantages for optics . The idea that India must choose one side is outdated. New Delhi’s strategy is not neutrality, but calculated multi-alignment—keeping Iran in Delhi while keeping Israel in India’s arsenal .
Turkey and Pakistan: The New Flashpoints
Ankara and Islamabad are now emerging as key adversaries in India’s strategic calculus. The Turkey-Pakistan axis has grown from ideological solidarity to a strategic bloc that actively counters Indian influence .
Turkey’s military partnership with Pakistan is no longer confined to symbolism. During Operation Sindoor—India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack—India repelled over 300 hostile drones, many believed to be Turkish-made Songar models . Turkish targeting systems, drone integration suites, and surveillance tools formed part of Pakistan’s operational ecosystem . Between 300 and 400 Turkish-made drones were reportedly used by Pakistan in cross-border infiltrations and attacks on military installations .
Even more striking was Turkey’s reported decision to block the passage of US-made Apache helicopters en route to India, forcing a heavy-lift aircraft to turn back . For a NATO member to obstruct military deliveries to a democratic partner was not bureaucratic confusion—it was geopolitical signalling.
The “Three Brothers” alliance—Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan—now operates as a loose trilateral framework, holding joint military exercises and backing each other’s territorial claims . This includes support for Pakistan on Kashmir, Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh, and Turkey’s regional ambitions . India has responded by strengthening ties with Armenia (a counterweight to Azerbaijan), Greece, Cyprus, and deepening cooperation with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—all of whom view Turkey with caution .
However, Turkey is feeling the economic pinch. Signs of a diplomatic thaw are emerging: Ankara has reportedly signalled a strong desire to decouple its bilateral relationship with India from its historic ties with Pakistan, driven by internal economic challenges . Turkish officials have maintained that they have no inherent bilateral disputes with India, marking a conscious effort to transition toward normalised state-to-state diplomacy . This overture is widely viewed by intelligence experts as a defensive narrative—Ankara is eager to prevent New Delhi from deploying trade leverage against Turkish firms .
Indian security agencies remain focused on Turkish defence exports to Islamabad, particularly unmanned combat aerial vehicles and dual-use sensor technologies. Ankara is testing the waters to see if it can maintain its traditional leadership role in the OIC while simultaneously building a lucrative partnership with India .
What This Means for India’s West Asia Policy
The emerging US-Iran deal, India’s recalibrated ties with Israel, and the Turkey-Pakistan challenge are reshaping India’s West Asia playbook. Here are the key takeaways:
1. Energy security remains paramount. India must fill its strategic petroleum reserves, diversify suppliers beyond the Gulf, and build resilience against future disruptions . The reopening of Hormuz offers relief, but dependence on a single chokepoint is a strategic vulnerability.
2. Chabahar’s future hangs in the balance. India must work quietly to secure long-term access to the port and the INSTC, regardless of US sanctions. Publicly seeking waivers was poor diplomacy—it created the impression that India needed permission regarding its energy choices . A sovereign country should quietly pursue its national interests.
3. Israel remains indispensable. The India-Israel partnership is too deep to be abandoned. The challenge is to keep Israel engaged while maintaining enough flexibility to engage Iran when opportunities arise.
4. The Turkey-Pakistan axis requires a measured response. India must tighten technology and export controls, deepen defence cooperation with Turkey’s rivals, ramp up counter-drone capabilities, and strengthen narrative diplomacy . But India should leave the diplomatic door ajar—Turkey is caught between ideology and economic necessity, and parts of its establishment recognise the danger of antagonising a rising India .
5. India needs to reclaim its diplomatic centrality. The lesson from the West Asian crisis is clear: economic power alone does not guarantee diplomatic influence . By aligning too visibly with Israel and the US, India reduced its ability to engage Iran. By viewing Pakistan’s diplomatic gains through a zero-sum lens, India denied itself the opportunity to play a role in regional stability .
The challenge for India is not to choose between Iran and Israel, or to explain away Pakistan’s diplomatic successes. The challenge is to ask why a country of India’s size and ambition was not sitting at the same peace table as Pakistan . Influence increasingly belongs to states capable of speaking to everyone—not to those determined to choose sides.
What are your thoughts on India’s West Asia strategy? Is the Modi government navigating a geopolitical minefield or simply hedging its bets? Share your perspective in the comments below.
Ankara and Islamabad are now emerging as key adversaries in India’s strategic calculus. The Turkey-Pakistan axis has grown from ideological solidarity to a strategic bloc that actively counters Indian influence .
Turkey’s military partnership with Pakistan is no longer confined to symbolism. During Operation Sindoor—India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack—India repelled over 300 hostile drones, many believed to be Turkish-made Songar models . Turkish targeting systems, drone integration suites, and surveillance tools formed part of Pakistan’s operational ecosystem . Between 300 and 400 Turkish-made drones were reportedly used by Pakistan in cross-border infiltrations and attacks on military installations .
Even more striking was Turkey’s reported decision to block the passage of US-made Apache helicopters en route to India, forcing a heavy-lift aircraft to turn back . For a NATO member to obstruct military deliveries to a democratic partner was not bureaucratic confusion—it was geopolitical signalling.
The “Three Brothers” alliance—Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan—now operates as a loose trilateral framework, holding joint military exercises and backing each other’s territorial claims . This includes support for Pakistan on Kashmir, Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh, and Turkey’s regional ambitions . India has responded by strengthening ties with Armenia (a counterweight to Azerbaijan), Greece, Cyprus, and deepening cooperation with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—all of whom view Turkey with caution .
However, Turkey is feeling the economic pinch. Signs of a diplomatic thaw are emerging: Ankara has reportedly signalled a strong desire to decouple its bilateral relationship with India from its historic ties with Pakistan, driven by internal economic challenges . Turkish officials have maintained that they have no inherent bilateral disputes with India, marking a conscious effort to transition toward normalised state-to-state diplomacy . This overture is widely viewed by intelligence experts as a defensive narrative—Ankara is eager to prevent New Delhi from deploying trade leverage against Turkish firms .
Indian security agencies remain focused on Turkish defence exports to Islamabad, particularly unmanned combat aerial vehicles and dual-use sensor technologies. Ankara is testing the waters to see if it can maintain its traditional leadership role in the OIC while simultaneously building a lucrative partnership with India .
What This Means for India’s West Asia Policy
The emerging US-Iran deal, India’s recalibrated ties with Israel, and the Turkey-Pakistan challenge are reshaping India’s West Asia playbook. Here are the key takeaways:
1. Energy security remains paramount. India must fill its strategic petroleum reserves, diversify suppliers beyond the Gulf, and build resilience against future disruptions . The reopening of Hormuz offers relief, but dependence on a single chokepoint is a strategic vulnerability.
2. Chabahar’s future hangs in the balance. India must work quietly to secure long-term access to the port and the INSTC, regardless of US sanctions. Publicly seeking waivers was poor diplomacy—it created the impression that India needed permission regarding its energy choices . A sovereign country should quietly pursue its national interests.
3. Israel remains indispensable. The India-Israel partnership is too deep to be abandoned. The challenge is to keep Israel engaged while maintaining enough flexibility to engage Iran when opportunities arise.
4. The Turkey-Pakistan axis requires a measured response. India must tighten technology and export controls, deepen defence cooperation with Turkey’s rivals, ramp up counter-drone capabilities, and strengthen narrative diplomacy . But India should leave the diplomatic door ajar—Turkey is caught between ideology and economic necessity, and parts of its establishment recognise the danger of antagonising a rising India .
5. India needs to reclaim its diplomatic centrality. The lesson from the West Asian crisis is clear: economic power alone does not guarantee diplomatic influence . By aligning too visibly with Israel and the US, India reduced its ability to engage Iran. By viewing Pakistan’s diplomatic gains through a zero-sum lens, India denied itself the opportunity to play a role in regional stability .
The challenge for India is not to choose between Iran and Israel, or to explain away Pakistan’s diplomatic successes. The challenge is to ask why a country of India’s size and ambition was not sitting at the same peace table as Pakistan . Influence increasingly belongs to states capable of speaking to everyone—not to those determined to choose sides.
What are your thoughts on India’s West Asia strategy? Is the Modi government navigating a geopolitical minefield or simply hedging its bets? Share your perspective in the comments below.
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