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| Bin Salman |
Rising tensions in the Middle East have put Saudi Arabia’s oil exports at risk. As a US naval blockade disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Crown Prince MBS is reportedly seeking Trump’s help to de-escalate the crisis with Iran. Read our in-depth analysis.
For decades, the world has taken the free flow of oil through the Middle East for granted. But right now, that assumption is being tested like never before. With a US naval blockade tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s economic lifelines are staring into the abyss. And at the centre of this growing storm is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who, according to recent reports, has turned to an unlikely figure for help: former US President Donald Trump.
It sounds like the plot of a geopolitical thriller. But this is real, and the stakes could not be higher—not just for Riyadh, but for every driver, business, and household across the globe who relies on stable energy prices.
The Blockade That Changed Everything
Let’s rewind slightly. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is one of the most strategically important chokepoints on the planet. Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum passes through it every single day. For Saudi Arabia, it is the front door for its oil exports.
Now, that door is partially closed.
The United States has imposed a naval blockade in response to escalating threats from Iran, following accusations that Tehran was moving closer to weaponising its nuclear programme and disrupting commercial shipping. While the blockade is intended to pressure the Iranian regime, its immediate effect has been chaos for global shipping routes. Tankers are being delayed, rerouted, or held back entirely. Insurance premiums have skyrocketed. And in Riyadh, the mood has shifted from quiet confidence to open alarm.
Let’s rewind slightly. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is one of the most strategically important chokepoints on the planet. Roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum passes through it every single day. For Saudi Arabia, it is the front door for its oil exports.
Now, that door is partially closed.
The United States has imposed a naval blockade in response to escalating threats from Iran, following accusations that Tehran was moving closer to weaponising its nuclear programme and disrupting commercial shipping. While the blockade is intended to pressure the Iranian regime, its immediate effect has been chaos for global shipping routes. Tankers are being delayed, rerouted, or held back entirely. Insurance premiums have skyrocketed. And in Riyadh, the mood has shifted from quiet confidence to open alarm.
MBS Turns to Trump: A Desperate or Calculated Move?
According to sources familiar with the matter, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has personally urged Donald Trump—still a hugely influential figure in US foreign policy circles—to help de-escalate the crisis with Iran. On the surface, this might seem surprising. After all, Saudi Arabia and the United States remain formal allies, and the current US administration is still calling the shots. But in practice, MBS knows that Trump has both the personal rapport with Riyadh and the unpredictability that Tehran might actually respect.
The Crown Prince is said to be deeply worried that the confrontation is spiralling beyond anyone’s control. A prolonged conflict would not only choke off Saudi oil revenues but also destabilise the very foundation of the kingdom’s economy: the safe and reliable export of crude.
But here’s where it gets even more complicated. Hormuz isn’t the only problem.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has personally urged Donald Trump—still a hugely influential figure in US foreign policy circles—to help de-escalate the crisis with Iran. On the surface, this might seem surprising. After all, Saudi Arabia and the United States remain formal allies, and the current US administration is still calling the shots. But in practice, MBS knows that Trump has both the personal rapport with Riyadh and the unpredictability that Tehran might actually respect.
The Crown Prince is said to be deeply worried that the confrontation is spiralling beyond anyone’s control. A prolonged conflict would not only choke off Saudi oil revenues but also destabilise the very foundation of the kingdom’s economy: the safe and reliable export of crude.
But here’s where it gets even more complicated. Hormuz isn’t the only problem.
The Bab al-Mandeb Nightmare
As The Wall Street Journal recently reported, Saudi officials are increasingly concerned that the pressure on Tehran could spill over into another critical waterway: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. If that name doesn’t ring a bell, it should. Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is the gateway to the Suez Canal. For any oil traffic trying to avoid Hormuz, it is the natural alternative route.
And right now, that alternative is looking dangerously fragile.
The Houthi movement in Yemen, which has long received support from Iran, has repeatedly attacked shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb over the past few years. Drone boats, ballistic missiles, and naval mines have all been used to harass commercial vessels. With Hormuz already compromised, Saudi Arabia fears that Tehran could encourage its proxies to step up attacks in Bab al-Mandeb, effectively squeezing the kingdom from two sides.
Imagine this: your front door is blocked, and just as you turn to leave through the back, someone sets fire to that exit too. That is precisely the nightmare scenario keeping Saudi strategists awake at night.
As The Wall Street Journal recently reported, Saudi officials are increasingly concerned that the pressure on Tehran could spill over into another critical waterway: the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. If that name doesn’t ring a bell, it should. Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is the gateway to the Suez Canal. For any oil traffic trying to avoid Hormuz, it is the natural alternative route.
And right now, that alternative is looking dangerously fragile.
The Houthi movement in Yemen, which has long received support from Iran, has repeatedly attacked shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb over the past few years. Drone boats, ballistic missiles, and naval mines have all been used to harass commercial vessels. With Hormuz already compromised, Saudi Arabia fears that Tehran could encourage its proxies to step up attacks in Bab al-Mandeb, effectively squeezing the kingdom from two sides.
Imagine this: your front door is blocked, and just as you turn to leave through the back, someone sets fire to that exit too. That is precisely the nightmare scenario keeping Saudi strategists awake at night.
The Economic Fallout: Not Just Saudi Arabia’s Problem
If both straits become unviable for safe shipping, Saudi Arabia would have no easy way to export its oil to Europe, North America, or even parts of Asia. The only remaining routes would be long, expensive, and logistically impractical. Pipelines across the kingdom have limited capacity, and even they could become targets in a wider conflict.
The result? A sudden, sharp reduction in global oil supply. And as any economist will tell you, reduced supply with steady or rising demand equals one thing: a price spike. We could be looking at oil prices doubling within weeks. That means higher petrol prices at the pump, more expensive flights, and increased costs for everything from plastics to pharmaceuticals.
In other words, this isn’t just a Middle Eastern crisis. It’s a looming global economic shock.
If both straits become unviable for safe shipping, Saudi Arabia would have no easy way to export its oil to Europe, North America, or even parts of Asia. The only remaining routes would be long, expensive, and logistically impractical. Pipelines across the kingdom have limited capacity, and even they could become targets in a wider conflict.
The result? A sudden, sharp reduction in global oil supply. And as any economist will tell you, reduced supply with steady or rising demand equals one thing: a price spike. We could be looking at oil prices doubling within weeks. That means higher petrol prices at the pump, more expensive flights, and increased costs for everything from plastics to pharmaceuticals.
In other words, this isn’t just a Middle Eastern crisis. It’s a looming global economic shock.
A Human Perspective: Riyadh’s Anxiety
Behind the geopolitics and the naval jargon, there is a very human story unfolding in Riyadh. The Crown Prince’s aggressive economic diversification plan, known as Vision 2030, depends entirely on sustained oil revenues in the short to medium term. Without those revenues, megaprojects like NEOM, the Red Sea tourism initiative, and the vast entertainment complexes become impossible to fund.
There is also a matter of national psychology. Saudi Arabia has spent decades cultivating an image of stability and reliability as an energy superpower. The idea that its two main oil export routes could be simultaneously compromised is not just an economic blow—it is a profound reputational shock. For MBS, who has staked his legacy on modernising the kingdom and attracting foreign investment, that is a deeply personal concern.
Behind the geopolitics and the naval jargon, there is a very human story unfolding in Riyadh. The Crown Prince’s aggressive economic diversification plan, known as Vision 2030, depends entirely on sustained oil revenues in the short to medium term. Without those revenues, megaprojects like NEOM, the Red Sea tourism initiative, and the vast entertainment complexes become impossible to fund.
There is also a matter of national psychology. Saudi Arabia has spent decades cultivating an image of stability and reliability as an energy superpower. The idea that its two main oil export routes could be simultaneously compromised is not just an economic blow—it is a profound reputational shock. For MBS, who has staked his legacy on modernising the kingdom and attracting foreign investment, that is a deeply personal concern.
What Comes Next?
So, where do we go from here? A few scenarios are possible.
First, the US and Iran could enter into back-channel negotiations to ease tensions, potentially in exchange for renewed nuclear limits or a de-escalation of regional proxy wars. If that happens, the blockade might be lifted or scaled back, and Hormuz could return to normal within weeks.
Second, Trump could play the role of intermediary. While he is no longer in office, his influence over Republican foreign policy and his direct line to MBS make him a useful backchannel. If Trump were to publicly call for de-escalation, it might give both Washington and Tehran room to step back from the brink without losing face.
Third—and most alarmingly—the current trajectory could continue. More skirmishes, more attacks, and eventually a direct military confrontation. In that case, both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb could become active war zones, and Saudi Arabia’s oil exports would be slashed for months, if not longer.
So, where do we go from here? A few scenarios are possible.
First, the US and Iran could enter into back-channel negotiations to ease tensions, potentially in exchange for renewed nuclear limits or a de-escalation of regional proxy wars. If that happens, the blockade might be lifted or scaled back, and Hormuz could return to normal within weeks.
Second, Trump could play the role of intermediary. While he is no longer in office, his influence over Republican foreign policy and his direct line to MBS make him a useful backchannel. If Trump were to publicly call for de-escalation, it might give both Washington and Tehran room to step back from the brink without losing face.
Third—and most alarmingly—the current trajectory could continue. More skirmishes, more attacks, and eventually a direct military confrontation. In that case, both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb could become active war zones, and Saudi Arabia’s oil exports would be slashed for months, if not longer.
Final Thoughts
The image of MBS begging for relief might make for sensational headlines, but the reality is far more sobering. This is not about pride or political posturing. It is about the basic mechanics of how oil moves from the ground to the global market. When those mechanics break, the consequences ripple outward in ways that touch every single one of us.
For now, the world watches and waits. But if there is one lesson from this crisis, it is this: stability in the Middle East is never guaranteed, and the straits that seem so distant on a map are, in fact, very close to home.
What do you think—can Trump help defuse the crisis, or are we heading for a wider conflict? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
The image of MBS begging for relief might make for sensational headlines, but the reality is far more sobering. This is not about pride or political posturing. It is about the basic mechanics of how oil moves from the ground to the global market. When those mechanics break, the consequences ripple outward in ways that touch every single one of us.
For now, the world watches and waits. But if there is one lesson from this crisis, it is this: stability in the Middle East is never guaranteed, and the straits that seem so distant on a map are, in fact, very close to home.
What do you think—can Trump help defuse the crisis, or are we heading for a wider conflict? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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