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| Donald Trump |
Meta Description: As American casualties mount and Arab allies refuse to back the war, is Trump losing his grip on Iran? We analyse the latest news on the Israel conflict, US public opinion, and the shifting Middle East alliances.
For weeks, the rhetoric from the White House was one of swift and decisive victory. The joint US-Israeli campaign, dubbed "Operation Epic Fury," was meant to dismantle Iran's nuclear ambitions and topple its theocratic regime in a matter of days . But as the conflict enters its second week, the promised blitzkrieg is starting to look distinctly like a quagmire. With American casualties confirmed, allies in the Gulf seemingly turning their backs, and the US public firmly opposed to escalation, President Trump finds himself in a position of profound strategic vulnerability. Far from a triumphant display of "America First" strength, the war in Iran is rapidly becoming a political and military liability.
The Myth of the "Pre-emptive" Strike Unravels
The official justification for the attack, launched on February 28th, has been muddied from the start. Initially, the administration claimed it was a pre-emptive measure to stop an imminent threat . However, reports soon emerged suggesting that Israel had been lobbying for this war for months. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to dismiss claims that he "dragged" Trump into conflict—stating that the US president "acts on his own judgment"—the narrative of American independence rings hollow as the death toll rises .
The opening salvo was undeniably devastating for Tehran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking officials . But shock and awe was supposed to be the beginning, not the end. Today, the situation is anything but stable. Iran has proven resilient, launching retaliatory strikes not just at Israel, but at US assets across the region. The Pentagon has now confirmed the death of six American service members, with reports suggesting the number could rise . For a president who campaigned on ending endless wars, the sight of flag-draped coffins returning home is the ultimate political nightmare.
"Not on Our Soil": The Gulf Countries Push Back
Perhaps the most damaging development for the US-Israeli axis is the unexpected response from Arab nations. The strategic assumption underpinning the attack was that Sunni Gulf states, long wary of Shia Iran, would quietly support, or at least tolerate, the military action. That calculation appears to have been catastrophically wrong.
When Iran launched its retaliatory missile and drone strikes, they weren't just aimed at Israel. They targeted US military installations and interests in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait . This put the Gulf monarchies in an impossible position: absorb Iranian fire because of a war they did not ask for, or publicly side with the US and Israel and become a direct target.
They appear to be choosing a third option: distancing themselves from Washington and Tel Aviv. Reports from the ground are staggering. According to American journalist Tucker Carlson, security forces in both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have arrested Israeli Mossad agents who were allegedly planning bombings on their own soil . The implication is explosive: that Israel was willing to conduct false-flag operations in allied nations to drag them into the war or destabilise them from within.
"Why would the Israelis be committing bombings in Gulf countries, which are also being attacked by Iran? Aren’t they on the same side?" Carlson asked on his show, a sentiment that is likely being echoed in the royal palaces of Riyadh and Doha . Iran has further fuelled this fire, claiming that the US and Israel are launching drone attacks from bases in Arab countries to provoke a wider Muslim-on-Muslim conflict .
For the Gulf states, this is a red line. They are lobbying allies to push Trump toward a diplomatic off-ramp, fearing that a prolonged conflict will crater their economies and destabilise their thrones . The message to Washington is clear: you cannot use our soil to fight your war and then expect us to bleed for it.
The Home Front: MAGA Turns Against the War
Abroad, Trump is losing the diplomatic battle. At home, he is losing the people. New polling data paints a damning picture of public sentiment. An CNN poll conducted over the weekend found that a staggering 59% of Americans disapprove of the military action in Iran . A Reuters/Ipsos poll corroborates this, showing only 27% support for the strikes .
This isn't just the usual anti-war left. The isolationist wing of Trump's own MAGA base is in open revolt. The "America First" doctrine was never supposed to include sending American troops to die in the Middle East. The breaking point appears to be the humanitarian cost, but also the economic one. Images of conflict have sent oil prices soaring, with Brent crude jumping 10% . For working-class Americans already struggling with inflation, a spike in petrol prices is the last thing they want to see.
The shift is even visible on Capitol Hill. While Republican leadership has largely toed the line, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer minced no words, calling the conflict "a war of choice, not necessity," specifically citing the impact on gas prices . Within the Republican party itself, 42% of voters said that American casualties would make them reconsider their support . Now that those casualties are a reality, the political ground is shifting beneath Trump's feet.
Israel's War, America's Blood
This leads to the most uncomfortable question for the White House: whose interests are being served here? While US soldiers are dying and the American economy faces fresh uncertainty, Israel continues to press its advantage. Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir has vowed that strikes on Iran will continue for "many more days," boasting that coordination with US forces is "closer than ever" .
Many analysts argue that this war serves the strategic interests of Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long advocated for toppling the Iranian regime, far more than it does Washington's . The US is providing the firepower and absorbing the global backlash, while Israel dictates the tempo of the war. Even Trump's own Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, seemed to admit that the US acted because it learned Israel was going to strike first, forcing America's hand to manage the fallout . Trump has since walked back those comments, but the damage is done. The perception is set: a president who promised to put America first has been outmanoeuvred by an ally, leading to American blood being spilled on foreign soil.
The Road Ahead: Quagmire or Chaos?
Trump remains defiant, insisting that "just about everything's been knocked out" and vowing to do "whatever it takes" . But with the US having killed a foreign head of state and the Middle East teetering on the brink of a regional war, there is no easy exit.
The President's approval rating has already slipped to 39%, a precarious position with mid-term elections on the horizon . The loss of American life, combined with the economic pain at the pump and the alienation of Arab allies, creates a perfect storm.
The "coalition of the willing" that Trump envisioned has failed to materialise. Instead, he faces a coalition of the unwilling: unwilling to be drawn into Israel's conflict, unwilling to host US bases that become Iranian targets, and unwilling to sacrifice their own stability for Washington's wars. For Donald Trump, the war in Iran is no longer a strategic option; it is a crisis of his own making from which there appears to be no graceful exit.
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