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| Shahbaz Sharif |
Meta Description: Explore why Pakistan is stepping back from its defence pact with Saudi Arabia amid the US-Israel war on Iran. Public pressure, strategic overstretch, and a new diplomatic balancing act are reshaping Islamabad’s foreign policy. Read the full analysis.
The Middle East is engulfed in flames. As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its second month, a seismic shift is taking place in one of the region’s most crucial alliances. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed Islamic republic with a long border with Iran, finds itself at a crossroads—and it appears to be choosing a path that neither Washington nor Riyadh anticipated.
Despite signing a landmark Joint Strategic Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia in September 2025—an accord that stipulated “any attack on either country constitutes an attack on both”—Pakistan is conspicuously absent from the battlefield . Instead of projecting military force in support of its traditional Gulf ally, Islamabad is doubling down on diplomacy, hosting peace talks and refusing to take sides in the escalating conflict .
This is not merely a diplomatic nuance; it is a full-blown strategic pivot driven by overwhelming domestic pressure, internal instability, and a cold calculation of national interest.
The Pact That Promised So Much
To understand the current disappointment in Riyadh, one must revisit the fanfare of September 2025. When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the defence pact in Riyadh, it was hailed as a NATO-style alliance for the Muslim world . For Saudi Arabia, it was a security insurance policy against Iranian threats. For Pakistan, it was a chance to reaffirm its role as the guardian of the Gulf, securing much-needed economic lifelines.
But as the old saying goes, "a pact is only as good as the crisis that tests it." When coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian infrastructure on 28 February 2026, triggering Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, the moment of truth arrived . Yet, instead of sending troops or activating the mutual defence clause, Islamabad went silent on the military front.
According to analysts, Pakistan has offered "zero military commitment" of the kind the pact seemed to imply . Reports from South African and Indian media outlets have described the situation as Saudi Arabia realising that Pakistan is "not a dependable security partner" .
To understand the current disappointment in Riyadh, one must revisit the fanfare of September 2025. When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the defence pact in Riyadh, it was hailed as a NATO-style alliance for the Muslim world . For Saudi Arabia, it was a security insurance policy against Iranian threats. For Pakistan, it was a chance to reaffirm its role as the guardian of the Gulf, securing much-needed economic lifelines.
But as the old saying goes, "a pact is only as good as the crisis that tests it." When coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian infrastructure on 28 February 2026, triggering Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, the moment of truth arrived . Yet, instead of sending troops or activating the mutual defence clause, Islamabad went silent on the military front.
According to analysts, Pakistan has offered "zero military commitment" of the kind the pact seemed to imply . Reports from South African and Indian media outlets have described the situation as Saudi Arabia realising that Pakistan is "not a dependable security partner" .
Public Pressure: The People’s Red Line
The primary reason for Islamabad’s hesitation lies on its streets. Pakistan is home to the world’s second-largest Shia Muslim population after Iran. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the opening strikes of the war sent shockwaves through Pakistan . Thousands took to the streets in cities like Islamabad, Karachi, and Skardu, trampling on portraits of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, chanting slogans in support of Tehran .
The political pressure is immense. Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Hafiz Naeemur Rehman recently warned that "if Israel succeeds in Iran, its border could reach Pakistan, as the next country in line" . He accused anyone speaking against Iran of acting as an "agent of the United States and Israel," adding that "the entire Pakistani nation stands with Iran" .
This sentiment is not confined to religious parties. Former diplomats like Maleeha Lodhi have noted that the government is under "a lot of pressure for cozying up to Trump" after Shehbaz Sharif embarrassingly nominated the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize last year . That decision has aged poorly as American bombs now fall on a neighbouring Muslim nation.
The Army Chief’s Controversial Stance
While the public demands neutrality or even support for Iran, the military establishment—led by Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir—appears to be leaning toward Saudi Arabia, creating an internal rift that is tearing at the fabric of Pakistani society.
In a closed-door meeting with Shia clerics in Rawalpindi on 19 March, Munir reportedly issued explicit threats. According to clerics who attended the meeting, he stated that anyone sympathising with Iran "should leave Pakistan and go to Iran" . He allegedly warned that those approaching military institutions during demonstrations would be "shot directly" and that protestors would face military courts .
These remarks sparked outrage. Syed Sajid Naqvi, head of the Pakistan Jaafari Tehreek party, fired back: "Who decides who is Pakistani or not? No one has the right to tell us to leave our country" . Another leader, Syed Ahmad Iqbal Rizvi, retorted: "You should go to America, you should go to Israel because you sympathise with them" .
This internal confrontation highlights a dangerous reality: Pakistan’s foreign policy is currently a battlefield between the state’s strategic alignment with the Gulf and the populace’s religious and emotional ties to Iran.
While the public demands neutrality or even support for Iran, the military establishment—led by Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir—appears to be leaning toward Saudi Arabia, creating an internal rift that is tearing at the fabric of Pakistani society.
In a closed-door meeting with Shia clerics in Rawalpindi on 19 March, Munir reportedly issued explicit threats. According to clerics who attended the meeting, he stated that anyone sympathising with Iran "should leave Pakistan and go to Iran" . He allegedly warned that those approaching military institutions during demonstrations would be "shot directly" and that protestors would face military courts .
These remarks sparked outrage. Syed Sajid Naqvi, head of the Pakistan Jaafari Tehreek party, fired back: "Who decides who is Pakistani or not? No one has the right to tell us to leave our country" . Another leader, Syed Ahmad Iqbal Rizvi, retorted: "You should go to America, you should go to Israel because you sympathise with them" .
This internal confrontation highlights a dangerous reality: Pakistan’s foreign policy is currently a battlefield between the state’s strategic alignment with the Gulf and the populace’s religious and emotional ties to Iran.
Strategic Overstretch: The Afghanistan Excuse?
Beyond public pressure, Pakistan has a practical excuse for avoiding war: its western border is already on fire. Escalating tensions with the Taliban in Afghanistan have forced Islamabad to divert its military resources. Fighting along the Durand Line has already displaced over 115,000 people in Afghanistan, and Pakistan claims its forces are "tied down" dealing with cross-border terrorism .
Critics, however, see this as a convenient alibi. As one analysis put it, "Pakistan designed this conflict, and now it is giving them the perfect excuse to say they are tied down... and unavailable abroad for Saudi" . Whether genuine or strategic, the instability in Afghanistan provides Islamabad with a plausible reason to avoid activating the Saudi defence pact.
Beyond public pressure, Pakistan has a practical excuse for avoiding war: its western border is already on fire. Escalating tensions with the Taliban in Afghanistan have forced Islamabad to divert its military resources. Fighting along the Durand Line has already displaced over 115,000 people in Afghanistan, and Pakistan claims its forces are "tied down" dealing with cross-border terrorism .
Critics, however, see this as a convenient alibi. As one analysis put it, "Pakistan designed this conflict, and now it is giving them the perfect excuse to say they are tied down... and unavailable abroad for Saudi" . Whether genuine or strategic, the instability in Afghanistan provides Islamabad with a plausible reason to avoid activating the Saudi defence pact.
A New Diplomatic Axis
Instead of fighting, Pakistan is leading. In a stunning display of diplomatic agility, Islamabad has positioned itself as the chief mediator between the US and Iran. Pakistan confirmed that it transmitted a 15-point US peace proposal to Tehran and is relaying responses back to Washington .
On Monday, Islamabad will host the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for quadrilateral talks aimed at de-escalating the conflict . This emerging alignment—Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—represents a new security axis within the Muslim world, one that packs three of the region’s largest armies and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent .
Pakistan’s goal is to secure a ceasefire without forcing itself into a direct war with Iran. As The Guardian reported, Pakistan is determined to avoid an outcome that would pit its troops against its neighbour .
Instead of fighting, Pakistan is leading. In a stunning display of diplomatic agility, Islamabad has positioned itself as the chief mediator between the US and Iran. Pakistan confirmed that it transmitted a 15-point US peace proposal to Tehran and is relaying responses back to Washington .
On Monday, Islamabad will host the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for quadrilateral talks aimed at de-escalating the conflict . This emerging alignment—Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—represents a new security axis within the Muslim world, one that packs three of the region’s largest armies and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent .
Pakistan’s goal is to secure a ceasefire without forcing itself into a direct war with Iran. As The Guardian reported, Pakistan is determined to avoid an outcome that would pit its troops against its neighbour .
The Saudi Dilemma: All Rhetoric, No Action?
For Saudi Arabia, this is a bitter pill to swallow. The kingdom invested significant diplomatic capital in framing the defence pact as a serious, binding commitment. Now, Riyadh is learning that what was marketed as "brotherhood and mutual defence" may, in fact, be a hollow arrangement .
The Lokmat Times, citing a report from South Africa’s The Star, noted that "the current situation showcases a difference between rhetoric and action" . For years, Pakistani leaders promised to be the shield of the Gulf. Now that the shield is needed, it appears to be made of paper.
For Saudi Arabia, this is a bitter pill to swallow. The kingdom invested significant diplomatic capital in framing the defence pact as a serious, binding commitment. Now, Riyadh is learning that what was marketed as "brotherhood and mutual defence" may, in fact, be a hollow arrangement .
The Lokmat Times, citing a report from South Africa’s The Star, noted that "the current situation showcases a difference between rhetoric and action" . For years, Pakistani leaders promised to be the shield of the Gulf. Now that the shield is needed, it appears to be made of paper.
Conclusion: A Nation Walking a Tightrope
Pakistan is currently walking a high-wire without a safety net. Refusing to join the US-Israel war on Iran risks alienating Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies that have propped up its economy for decades. Joining the war, however, risks a domestic explosion that could tear the country apart along sectarian lines and invite retaliatory strikes from a nuclear-armed neighbour.
For now, Islamabad is betting on diplomacy. By hosting peace talks and maintaining a neutral military posture, Pakistan hopes to weather the storm. But as the war drags on and the pressure mounts from both the streets of Karachi and the palaces of Riyadh, this precarious balancing act may soon become impossible to sustain.
One thing is clear: the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, once seen as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s Middle East policy, is now effectively in a state of suspended animation. Whether it survives the current crisis depends entirely on whether Pakistan’s leaders can convince Riyadh that "brotherhood" means something different when the guns are actually firing.
Pakistan is currently walking a high-wire without a safety net. Refusing to join the US-Israel war on Iran risks alienating Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies that have propped up its economy for decades. Joining the war, however, risks a domestic explosion that could tear the country apart along sectarian lines and invite retaliatory strikes from a nuclear-armed neighbour.
For now, Islamabad is betting on diplomacy. By hosting peace talks and maintaining a neutral military posture, Pakistan hopes to weather the storm. But as the war drags on and the pressure mounts from both the streets of Karachi and the palaces of Riyadh, this precarious balancing act may soon become impossible to sustain.
One thing is clear: the defence pact with Saudi Arabia, once seen as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s Middle East policy, is now effectively in a state of suspended animation. Whether it survives the current crisis depends entirely on whether Pakistan’s leaders can convince Riyadh that "brotherhood" means something different when the guns are actually firing.
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