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| Narender Modi |
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As the US-EU trade deal reshapes global commerce, India faces rising pressure over oil imports, factory shutdowns, and geopolitical alignment. Is India’s manufacturing sector being sacrificed in global power games? A deep, human-centred analysis.
Introduction: When Global Deals Hit Local Jobs
In recent weeks, headlines have been dominated by the so-called “mother of all trade deals” between India and the European Union. Large sections of Indian mainstream media celebrated this development, portraying it as a diplomatic victory and a sign of India’s growing global stature.
But away from studio debates and celebratory soundbites, a more uncomfortable reality is unfolding on the ground.
Factories are quietly shutting down. Manufacturing units are slowing operations. Workers are being laid off. And yet, there is barely any serious national conversation about how these global trade shifts are impacting India’s real economy.
This is not just about trade. It is about livelihoods, energy security, and whether India is being pushed into economic decisions that hurt its own industrial backbone.
Energy Pressure: From Russia and Iran to Venezuela?
For years, India has strategically sourced oil from multiple countries to keep energy costs under control. Russia and Iran have been key suppliers, often providing crude oil at discounted rates — a critical advantage for a developing economy like India.
However, growing pressure from Western nations has changed the equation.
India has reportedly been warned repeatedly to reduce or stop buying oil from Russia and Iran. These warnings are not merely diplomatic suggestions — they carry serious geopolitical and economic implications.
Now, reports and speculation suggest that India may be encouraged to shift towards buying oil from Venezuela — a country facing its own sanctions, political instability, and production challenges.
This raises important questions:
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Will Venezuelan oil actually be cheaper and reliable?
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Will logistics and transport costs rise?
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Will Indian consumers and industries end up paying more?
Energy is not just fuel. It is the lifeblood of manufacturing. Any increase in input costs directly impacts factory margins, product pricing, and employment.
Factory Closures: The Silent Crisis No One Is Talking About
While political leaders and TV channels focus on international optics, many Indian factories are facing a harsh reality.
Across several industrial belts, there are reports of:
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Reduced production shifts
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Temporary shutdowns
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Contract workers being let go
These closures are not always dramatic enough to make prime-time news. There are no ribbon-cutting ceremonies when a factory shuts down. No loud announcements. Just locked gates, empty workshops, and workers returning home without pay slips.
This is where the disconnect becomes dangerous.
A trade deal may look impressive on paper. Diplomatic alignment may sound powerful in speeches. But if Indian factories cannot compete due to rising energy costs, regulatory uncertainty, and global market pressure, then the real cost is paid by workers and small businesses.
The Role of Media: Celebration vs Reality
Much of what passes for mainstream business and political coverage in India has focused on selling the narrative of success.
Viewers are told that:
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India is becoming a global powerhouse
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India is striking historic trade agreements
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India is gaining international respect
But how often do we hear detailed reporting on:
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Factory shutdown numbers
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Job losses in manufacturing
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Rising input costs for MSMEs
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The long-term impact of energy import changes?
This selective storytelling creates a dangerous illusion — that everything is going well, while the ground reality tells a different story.
When factories close, it is not just a business decision. It is a social crisis. Families lose income. Local economies shrink. Small towns dependent on industrial units suffer quietly.
Trade Deals: Who Really Benefits?
Trade deals are complex. They can create opportunities — but they also create winners and losers.
Large corporations with global supply chains may adapt easily. They can shift sourcing, hedge costs, and pass price increases to consumers.
Small manufacturers cannot.
For many Indian factories, especially MSMEs:
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Energy is a major cost
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Raw material imports are sensitive to currency and trade terms
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Margins are already thin
When trade negotiations drag on for years, uncertainty builds. When energy policies change suddenly, business planning becomes impossible.
The result? Factories scale down. Some shut permanently.
And yet, this human cost rarely makes it into official success stories.
Strategic Autonomy vs Economic Reality
India has long spoken about strategic autonomy — the ability to make independent decisions based on national interest.
But energy choices are now increasingly shaped by external geopolitical pressures.
Being told whom to buy oil from, and whom not to, directly affects:
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Domestic inflation
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Export pricing
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Employment levels
If Indian industry becomes less competitive due to higher costs, global trade deals will not save those factories. They will simply shift production elsewhere.
Strategic alignment should not come at the cost of economic self-harm.
The Working Class Pays the Price
Behind every factory closure is a human story:
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A technician with EMIs to pay
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A contract worker supporting a family
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A small supplier whose only client has shut down
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A town whose economy revolved around one industrial unit
These stories do not appear in glossy trade deal presentations. But they define the real economy.
If manufacturing weakens, services alone cannot absorb all displaced workers. This creates long-term unemployment pressure and social stress.
What Should Be Asked — But Isn’t
Instead of blind celebration, serious questions must be asked:
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Are Indian factories becoming uncompetitive due to energy policy shifts?
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Are MSMEs being consulted in trade negotiations?
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Is there a safety net for workers affected by closures?
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Are trade deals being evaluated based on job creation, not just geopolitics?
Economic policy is not a chessboard game. It affects real people in real factories.
Conclusion: Time for Honest Economic Conversations
Global diplomacy matters. Trade partnerships matter. But they should never come at the silent cost of domestic industry.
If factories are shutting down while leaders celebrate trade deals, something is fundamentally wrong in the priorities.
India’s strength has always been its ability to balance global engagement with domestic economic protection. Losing that balance risks turning impressive headlines into painful realities for millions.
It is time to move beyond television triumphalism and ask tough questions about who is really benefiting — and who is quietly being left behind.
Because when factories shut down, it is not just machines that stop. It is lives.
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