Introduction: A Region in Turmoil
The Middle East has long been a chessboard for global powers, but in recent decades, Israel's growing role has become more pronounced. With Syria still recovering from years of civil war and foreign intervention, many geopolitical observers are now asking: After Syria, which country is next on the radar of regional reshaping? The concept of "Greater Israel" is once again at the centre of this debate, stirring fears among neighbouring nations and igniting concern across the Arab world.
The Controversial Concept of Greater Israel
The phrase “Greater Israel” isn't officially endorsed by the Israeli government, but it's a recurring idea in religious Zionist circles and among hardline political factions. The concept refers to a biblical vision that stretches Israel’s borders from the Nile in Egypt to the Euphrates in Iraq — encompassing parts of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.
Although often dismissed as extremist rhetoric, some critics argue that certain political movements and military actions suggest that the idea of Greater Israel has subtly influenced Israeli regional strategy. The annexation of East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and persistent settlement expansion in the West Bank are frequently cited as examples of gradual territorial ambition.
Syria: A Broken State and a Geopolitical Pawn
The destruction of Syria, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring, has had catastrophic consequences. What started as civil unrest evolved into a proxy war involving the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory — often targeting Iranian militias and Hezbollah weapons depots — became routine.
With the Assad regime weakened, millions displaced, and infrastructure decimated, Syria has become a fragmented buffer zone. This shift has benefited Israel strategically by neutralising one of its traditional enemies. Now that Syria is no longer a credible military threat, attention is turning to which country might be the next target in this regional power rebalancing.
Lebanon: Teetering on the Brink
One likely candidate is Lebanon. The country is grappling with an unprecedented economic collapse, political paralysis, and frequent Israeli air incursions. Most importantly, Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militia based in Lebanon, remains Israel’s most immediate non-state threat.
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated sharply in recent months, particularly amid the Israel-Gaza war. Analysts suggest that a full-scale war with Hezbollah could be used as a pretext to destroy Lebanon’s already fragile sovereignty — thus neutralising another component of the Axis of Resistance, which includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
Iran: The Long-Term Adversary
While a direct invasion of Iran remains highly unlikely due to its size and military capabilities, Israel continues to see Tehran as its existential threat — particularly due to Iran's nuclear programme and support for groups like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad.
Cyber warfare, sabotage operations like the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and covert attacks on nuclear facilities are part of Israel’s shadow war against Iran. Although not a "next target" in terms of traditional warfare, Iran remains central to Israel’s long-term regional strategy and efforts to redraw power lines in the Middle East.
Jordan and the West Bank: Soft Targets?
Although Jordan maintains a peace treaty with Israel, its population is overwhelmingly Palestinian. Rising tensions at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and concerns about a "second Nakba" — the mass displacement of Palestinians — have raised alarms in Amman. Some speculate that in the pursuit of Greater Israel, the West Bank and parts of Jordan could face destabilisation under the guise of "security operations" or demographic adjustments.
The West Bank is already witnessing increased violence, settlement expansion, and displacement. Critics argue this is a slow annexation process, setting the stage for a de facto Israeli control — another step toward the Greater Israel framework.
The Gaza Factor: An Open Prison or Testing Ground?
The situation in Gaza remains dire. Repeated Israeli military operations have left the region devastated, with the most recent conflict prompting global outrage over civilian casualties. Some analysts argue Gaza has been used as a "testing ground" for new weaponry, surveillance technology, and military strategies.
The marginalisation of Gaza’s people and the lack of a viable two-state solution suggest a bleak future. Gaza may not be a target in the traditional sense — because it already is. But the continuation of conflict serves the broader narrative of security, which can justify future territorial or demographic shifts.
A Broader Strategy: Fragment and Dominate
Some researchers and Middle East scholars argue that the destruction of strong Arab states is part of a broader plan — whether intentional or opportunistic — to weaken potential coalitions against Israel. Iraq, Libya, Syria, and potentially Lebanon and Jordan are examples of once-powerful or stable nations now reduced to fragmentation or internal chaos.
In this vacuum, Israel emerges not just as a regional power, but as a de facto hegemon — bolstered by Western allies and advanced military capabilities. The shrinking of its adversaries’ capacities, coupled with internal divisions in the Arab world, offers an ideal environment for expanding strategic influence.
Conclusion: Who’s Next? And at What Cost?
While the idea of Greater Israel may seem far-fetched to some, the consistent weakening of neighbouring Arab states, the annexation of contested lands, and the use of asymmetric warfare tactics suggest a long game in motion. After Syria, Lebanon appears to be the most immediate potential target, followed by continued soft annexation of the West Bank and escalated tensions with Iran.
The global community must examine these developments critically. Is this truly a defensive strategy, or the slow unfolding of a controversial ideological vision? As the dust settles over Syria, the region holds its breath, wondering: Who will be next?
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