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Did the Waqf Bill controversy weaken BJP’s hold in Uttar Pradesh? How did collapsing alliances affect NDA’s electoral performance? Read our in-depth analysis.
Introduction
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long dominated Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most politically significant state. However, recent controversies, including the Waqf Bill debate, and the breakdown of key alliances, may have dented its prospects.
In this article, we explore:
How the Waqf Bill controversy influenced voter sentiment in UP.
Why BJP’s allies abandoned the NDA, weakening its position.
The broader impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The Waqf Bill Controversy: A Political Misstep?
What Was the Waqf Bill?
The proposed Waqf Property Bill aimed to increase government oversight on Muslim religious properties (Waqf boards). While supporters argued it would prevent misuse, critics saw it as an attack on minority rights.
Why Did It Backfire?
Alienated Muslim Voters – The bill reinforced fears of BJP’s alleged anti-minority stance, consolidating opposition votes.
Polarised Hindu Vote – While hardliners supported it, moderate Hindus saw it as unnecessary provocation.
Opposition Weaponised It – Parties like SP and Congress framed it as "anti-constitutional," gaining traction.
Electoral Impact in UP
Reduced BJP’s margins in Muslim-dominated regions like Rampur, Moradabad, and Saharanpur.
Consolidated anti-BJP votes, helping INDIA bloc gain seats.
Collapsing Alliances: How NDA’s Weakened Coalition Hurt BJP
Key Allies That Left NDA
Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) – Switched to Mahagathbandhan, weakening BJP in Bihar and UP border areas.
Om Prakash Rajbhar (SBSP) – His exit hurt BJP’s OBC outreach in Purvanchal.
Sanjay Nishad (NISHAD Party) – Shifted loyalty, affecting BJP’s Nishad and fisherfolk votes.
Consequences for NDA
Lost crucial caste equations – OBCs and EBCs drifted towards SP & Congress.
Reduced organisational strength – Allies had strong grassroots networks.
Psychological Blow – Sent a signal of BJP’s declining dominance.
Did These Factors Cost BJP in 2024?
UP Seat Share Analysis
2019: BJP won 62/80 seats (NDA total: 64).
2024: BJP dropped to ~45 seats, with INDIA bloc making gains.
Key Takeaways
✔ Waqf Bill polarisation may have consolidated minority votes against BJP.
✔ Alliance breakdowns weakened NDA’s social engineering.
✔ Opposition unity (SP-Congress-RLD) worked effectively.
Conclusion: A Wake-Up Call for BJP?
The Waqf Bill controversy and alliance erosion certainly played a role in BJP’s reduced dominance in UP. While Hindutva remains a strong force, the party may need to:
Rebuild caste alliances (OBCs, Dalits).
Avoid polarising policies that backfire electorally.
Strengthen NDA by retaining key partners.
If BJP ignores these lessons, UP’s political landscape could shift further in future elections.
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